Economic Week Ahead (June 1, 2020)

The focus this week will be on May’s economic report on Friday
- Expectations are that the unemployment rate will increase to a post-WWII high of >19.0%
- The data will be messy, with categorization inconsistencies around who is actually categorized as unemployed
Weekly jobless claims data will again be a highlight
- Expectations are for 1.8 million new claims, bringing cumulative claims over 11 weeks to 42.5 million!
Today’s manufacturing ISM (39.0 vs 41.5) and Wednesday’s nonmanufacturing ISM (43.0 vs 41.8) are a mixed bag
High frequency data has suggested that the free-fall in economic activity has been stopped and output is picking up
We will have to wait until next week for more monetary policy information, since we’re in a blackout period ahead of the 6/10 FOMC meeting