Looking At The Economic Week Ahead: Inflation, Exports and Retail Sales

A boatload of economic information is set to release this week.
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As more data filters out this week, we’ll have more insight into the economy’s performance in 2020, WSJ reports.


China’s Consumer Prices:

  • Expected to remain the same from December 2019 to December 2020.
  • Prices dropped in November as increased supply led to a pullback in pork prices.
  • China’s consumer price-index “likely fell 0.8% on year, compared with a 1.5% drop in November, as the price of thermal coal picked up.”


U.S. Consumer Prices:

  • Expected to have moderately increased in December.
  • Inflation has been mild during the pandemic.
  • Economists expect weak demand for services and some goods to pick up speed later this year.


China’s Exports:

  • Expected to increase 12.8% from a year earlier in December.
  • It’s not as high as November’s 21.1% surge, as increasing U.S. and European Covid-19 cases put pressure on demand for Chinese goods.
  • December import growth likely expanded, giving a stable trade surplus of $72 billion.

Germany’s GDP Estimate:

  • It will be the first large economy to release an official estimate for 2020.
  • It’s likely to be the first contraction since 2009 — roughly the same “magnitude as in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, when GDP fell 5%.”

U.S. Jobless Claims:

  • Expected to remain elevated.
  • More Covid-19 cases and restrictions on businesses creating high levels of layoffs.


U.S. Retail Sales:

  • Fell in October and November, indiciating consumer pullback amid a Covid-19 surge, limited fiscal support and disappointing job gains.
  • The report will describe the “severity of the broader economic slowdown at the end of the year.”

U.S. Industrial Production:

  • Expected to increase in December, reflecting another month of gains.
  • Manufacturing has been a positive as companies adapt to the pandemic.
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